Russel Eastbrook — What the trade between the Rockets and Wizards means for the Eastern Conference

Russell Westbrook. Mr. Triple Double. The best point guard of the last decade (if you forget that Stephen Curry exists). The now 32-year-old superstar continues his journey across the US. With the Dec. 2, 2020 trade, the Washington Wizards are now the third team in three years for Westbrook. Furthermore, when you consider how this journey has come about, you have to ask yourself the questions: How much value does Westbrook actually have to an NBA team anymore, and what does the trade between the Rockets and Wizards mean for the remaining teams in the Eastern Conference. Surprisingly, the answers to these questions contradict each other at first glance.

To answer the second part of the question, you first have to figure out what the answer to the first part is, and to answer that part, you have to consider what kind of player Westbrook is. The former Most Valuable Player of the Year has always been known for being incredibly athletic, turning in monster statistical games and playing with a lot of heart and fire. In his best season, he averaged 30 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds every game. Those numbers alone are incredibly impressive, but on top of that he is considered one of the best leaders in the entire league. Even if there was no actual superstar available next to him, you could still always be sure that you would be in the playoffs no matter what. All of these advantages, however, come with serious disadvantages that you have to swallow as a team. In terms of play, Westbrook is very focused on one side of the field. Hardly anyone could accuse him of being a bad defender in terms of skill, but equally no one can give him credit for giving great effort on the defensive side. In terms of play, he also has a weakness that you can’t really afford these days: he can’t shoot to save his life. Among the current high-scoring players, Westbrook is considered by far the most inefficient from distance (but that doesn’t stop him from throwing a ton of threes). Westbrook is also accused of acquiring his monstrous numbers in an unnatural way. This view is often supported on YouTube with video clips in which Westbrook can be seen actively stealing rebounds from his colleagues and often deliberately not shooting the ball so that he can get the last assist for his triple double. This behavior can also possibly be cited as a reason why he is now being passed around from team to team. While his teammates have always had mostly positive comments about him, no superstar ever seems to want to play with him for more than two years. Paul George and James Harden, supposedly Westbrook’s best friends, have both seemingly given up on winning a championship with him. His advanced age definitely doesn’t help either. At a time when Lebron James is still winning championships at the age of 35 and is being discussed every year as the Most Valuable Player, we shouldn’t be too pessimistic about his age. But since Russell Westbrook is not Lebron James, you have to be realistic here. Especially players whose identity is based on their athleticism are even more susceptible to the disadvantages of an advanced age. Lebron James, who was considered incredibly athletic himself, was able to compensate for the disadvantages of age with an improved shot and his incredible basketball intelligence. Unfortunately, such compensation will not be possible for Westbrook. His shooting won’t improve in the future to the point where he’ll ever be an above-average shooter, and his intelligence with the ball is also questionable, especially considering his tendency to commit turnovers. While he’ll have two to three more years of being productive, he won’t compare to the Westbrook of four years ago. In summary, unfortunately, it doesn’t look so good for the value Westbrook still has for an NBA team. An aging, hyper-athletic point guard who can’t shoot and plays more for his stats than winning isn’t a definite negative, but definitely not worth the $40+ million per year.

After this summary of Westbrook’s abilities, one would have to conclude that Westbrook won’t make a difference in the Eastern Conference. But to assume that would be a big mistake! First you have to look at the team he was traded to and see how Westbrook’s style of play affects the team’s style of play and then look at the competition to come to a conclusion.

The Wizards were the team last year where you knew from the beginning that they would not achieve anything in the result but always liked to watch because the style of play was very flashy and exciting. Every day the team always focused on scoring more points than their opponents. The defense was often completely ignored, which led to the Wizards being the absolute worst defensive team out of the 30 teams. This was taken to the extreme with the combo of Bradley Beal and Isaiah Thomas, both players who are severely undersized for their position, both players known for their poor defense, and both players who score efficiently and play fast. Also notable players include Davis Bertans, one of the league’s best sharpshooters, Thomas Bryant, an incredibly efficient stretch 5, and Rui Hachimura, the rookie who is one of the league’s worse scorers on the team but still has strong offensive potential. With such a squad, you can be sure that the ball will at least find the basket. This style of play, unfortunately, had only moderate success last year, but more success than one would have expected. The Wizards were in tenth place in the Eastern Conference at the end of the year, two spots away from qualifying for the playoffs. A mini success was qualifying for the NBA Bubble, which was held due to the Corona Pandemic. However, the bubble itself was not a real success, as every game was finished with a loss by the Wizards. Overall, the squad was better than anyone thought and, by and large, nothing fundamental changed in the squad, the listed players are all still there, except for Isaiah Thomas, and there were some crucial additions, including former MVP Westbrook. In addition to Westbrook, they signed the center from Milwaukee, Robin Lopez, who may not be as talented as his brother Brook Lopez, but is still a massive plus defensively for the Wizards. Also, the Wizards were incredibly lucky in this year’s NBA Draft, as they were able to sign Israeli rookie Deni Avdija with the 9th pick, who was considered one of the 5 most talented rookies from this year.

So how will Westbrook’s style of play affect the Wizards’ style of play? It’s safe to assume that nothing will fundamentally change, but the quality of play will clearly improve. Offensively, Westbrook will unleash the Wizards’ potential. He himself is not a good shooter, but he attacks the basket like no other. Last year, you could see a trend of Westbrook taking fewer threes and using his athleticism to attack the zone over and over again. That led to his points (finally) being scored in an efficient manner. This style of play is especially worthwhile when the attacker is surrounded by players who can shoot from long range, which has proven to be the case with the Wizards. Such a style of play makes attacking easier, because no one in the opposing defense can help out, and it makes shooting the ball easier, because then, if someone does help out, all it takes is a kickout pass and you have an open three-pointer. In addition, Westbrook will help take pressure off Beal. Beal, who was one of the league’s most prolific scorers last year, was the focus of the opposing team every day last year. That won’t be possible with Westbrook (and possibly Avdija, though it’s too early to be sure), as Westbrook is just as dangerous with the ball in his hands as Beal is. This relief will lead to Beal being able to get his points even more efficiently than he already does. Defensively, things will change as well, even though Westbrook is not an elite defender. Just the fact that, at 6-foot-3, he replaces Isaiah Thomas, who is only 5-foot-7, at point guard should be explanation enough in itself why the Wizards will be better off defensively with Westbrook. But the addition of Lopez and Avdija should also be a tremendous plus on that half, which is why it’s safe to assume the Wizards still won’t be great on defense next year, but they’ll be leaps and bounds better than last year.

So now, if you compare this team to the rest of the teams from the Eastern Conference, at least the Wizards’ season doesn’t look lost. It’s no secret that the Eastern Conference is the weaker of the two conferences. This proves to be true this year as well, because besides the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets, no other team from the Eastern Conference is considered to have a chance to win the Championship this year, while in the West, the Lakers, the Clippers, the Nuggets, the Mavericks, the Jazz, the Warriors and the Pelicans could all at least be in question (although among those, the biggest favorites are probably the LA teams). In the Eastern Conference, there are only three other teams besides the Nets and the Bucks that are actually good, namely the Celtics, the 76ers and the Heat. The Raptors and Pacers were among these teams last year, but the Raptors lost some key players this year and the Pacers have refused to be better than average in the playoffs for years, so I’ve given up hope by now. The Heat were in the Finals last year, but they also lost some key players, so it’s safe to assume that won’t happen again this year. The 76ers have two incredibly strong players in Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, and with the signing of Daryl Morey as general manager, you can also assume that some good role players will find their way to Philadelphia, but so far there have always been high expectations with the 76ers, which they never met. The Celtics are also a good team with good management, but they are still very young and too inexperienced to really prevail against older teams. The loss of Irving, Horford and Hayward in recent years will prevent them from going far this year as well. Some question marks also exist with the last two teams, the Nets and the Bucks. The Nets look great on paper, the team has been able to prove itself the last two years without an actual superstar, and now they’ve added the promising combo of Irving and Durant. However, it’s very questionable how good Durant will be after his serious injury and whether the two superstars will make it this year without more injuries. While the Bucks have a consistently solid roster and a superstar who is about as dominant as a Shaquille O’Neal in his prime, they very clearly lack a second, productive superstar who can take the ball when the opposing team doubles Giannis Antetoukomnpo. Even O’Neal has only been able to win his titles with the help of Kobe and Wade. The Bucks had hopes that Khris Middleton could take over that role, but in recent years he has proven that he cannot. While Jrue Holiday was signed this year as a potential player who could fill that role, he too has been only moderately able to fill that role as second star in his years in New Orleans with Anthony Davis. So, on closer inspection, the East is wide open, there are favorites, but even they are not invincible and have their weaknesses. The Wizards are by no means a perfect team, the defense won’t abruptly evolve into a top 15 defense, and it’s not clear if the chemistry between Beal and Westbrook will be there. The Wizards’ style of play, however, invites optimism. They are not the best team in terms of personnel, but teams that particularly focus on the offensive side of the game are usually more likely to defeat a stronger team. Unlike the Bucks, the Wizards won’t have the embarrassment of not knowing which player to run the offense over, and unlike the stars of the Nets, both Beal and Westbrook are not very injury prone. So it’s not out of the question that the Wizards are playing for a Finals appearance this year, which would have severe repercussions for some teams in the East (especially the Bucks).